There would in all probability be indicators beyond North Korea’s borders if there were a sudden collapse in Kim’s health.
China could tighten security along its frontier to put together for potential instability or refugee flows. Activity around North Korean diplomatic missions might also increase. Defectors in South Korea usually obtain info through casual networks along the Chinese border. None of this has occurred.
South Korean intelligence officers, meanwhile, informed Yonhap they had heard nothing to support the reports.
The hearsay also echoes earlier false alarms.
In 2020, a high-profile North Korean defector claimed he was “99% certain” Kim had died following cardiovascular surgical procedure. Not long afterwards, Kim appeared in public and the claim unravelled.
So why do these rumours keep resurfacing? The first cause is succession.
North Korea has been ruled by the Kim household for three generations, but what occurs after Kim Jong Un stays less certain than it was for his predecessors.
Kim Il Sung spent a long time making ready his son, Kim Jong Il, for energy. By the time Kim Il Sung died in 1994, the succession plan was firmly established. Kim Jong Il’s transition was comparatively easy.
Kim Jong Un’s rise was quicker and more precarious. After Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in 2008, his youngest son was quickly promoted through the ranks. By the time his father died in 2011, he had been publicly recognized as the future chief.
Even so, Kim Jong Un spent years consolidating energy, purging rivals and eliminating perceived threats.
Today, South Korea’s intelligence company believes he may be making ready his daughter as a successor. She has more and more appeared at high-profile occasions and navy shows.
But she is thought to be only 13 years outdated. North Korea has never been led by a girl, and she has not been formally designated as inheritor. Her youth would also depart her weak in any energy battle.
All of this uncertainty helps clarify why rumours about Kim’s health entice so much consideration.
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