NBA MVP straw ballot: Why SGA and Wemby have created their own tier

Since Feb. 1, the San Antonio Spurs have won 27 of 29 video games to pressure their approach into the combine for the NBA’s best file.

As a consequence, 22-year-old phenom Victor Wembanyama has compelled his approach to the prime of the NBA’s Most Valuable Player dialogue, with a probability to become the first participant to win the award as early as his third season since Derrick Rose did so 15 years in the past.

But will the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 large man really problem Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who can become the 14th participant in league historical past to win back-to-back MVPs and the sixteenth to win it at least twice?

According to ESPN’s third and ultimate NBA MVP straw ballot of 2025-26, Wemby’s late-season push will fall just short.

In a ballot of 100 NBA media members performed Monday through Wednesday, Gilgeous-Alexander leads our poll with only 10 days left in the common season. The 27-year-old guard’s clutch play has allowed the defending champions to overcome accidents all through their rotation and stay a step forward of the Spurs.

And, despite Wembanyama’s late charge, Denver Nuggets‘ middle Nikola Jokic‘ continued otherworldly play and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic coming off a 600-point month — the first in March since Michael Jordan in 1987 — Gilgeous-Alexander stays comfortably in entrance. SGA landed the prime spot on 88 out of 100 ballots while choosing up 9 second- and three third-place votes for a complete of 958 factors, 300 clear of Wembanyama.

Those questioning why this race is not nearer can look to Monday night time. Wembanyama was good, with 41 factors, three 3-pointers, 16 rebounds and three blocks as San Antonio overwhelmed the Chicago Bulls.

A pair of hours later, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 47 factors in Oklahoma City’s extra time win against the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. After the sport, Gilgeous-Alexander was requested whether he needed to contribute to any of the ongoing MVP chatter.

“No, I’m good. Thanks for asking, though,” he instructed ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “Yeah, I’m good. I let my sport do the speaking.”

Gilgeous-Alexander, who has now led 5 consecutive straw polls since the center of last season, is having yet another spectacular marketing campaign. He’s averaging 31.6 factors on 55.3% capturing with 4.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.4 steals.

And he’s doing all of it while powering the Thunder to the best file in the NBA for a second straight season, and with key contributors shuttling in-and-out of the lineup. The most notable of that group: All-Star Jalen Williams, who has performed only 31 video games this season after offseason wrist surgical procedure and a hamstring pressure suffered in January.

But Wembanyama’s case can’t be ignored. Neither can San Antonio’s unbelievable play as a staff over the previous couple of months.

Wembanyama, who fell short of the 65-game threshold for 2024-25 awards eligibility, should keep away from any such points this time and is placing up astronomical numbers of his own — averaging 24.5 factors, 11.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and and a league-leading 3.1 blocks.

He’s also far from bashful about stating his case for the league’s prime particular person honor.

“I have thought about it,” Wembanyama instructed reporters last week. “I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I think I should lead the race. I’m trying to make sure that at the end of the season, there’s no debate.”

Unless issues change, though, Wembanyama might have to wait until next 12 months to doubtlessly be a part of Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only gamers to win both Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player in the same season.

Jokic, who obtained three first-place votes and landed on 99 of 100 ballots, completed outside the prime two for the first time since December 2022, a nod to his exceptional sturdiness and consistency. But his historic per-game averages — 27.7 factors (eighth in the NBA), 13.0 rebounds (first) and 10.8 assists (first) — have dipped a bit since the 31-year-old middle returned from a bone bruise in his knee before the All-Star break. Denver has also slipped behind the Lakers in the West standings.

Jokic was in a position to edge the fourth-place Doncic, who appeared on 96 of 100 ballots. Doncic leads the league with 33.5 factors per sport to go along with 7.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 1.6 steals while main the Lakers to a 15-2 file in March. Doncic’s possibilities in the official MVP poll took a hit Thursday night time, when he exited the sport against OKC with a left hamstring harm. At 64 video games performed, Doncic would become ineligible for MVP and All-NBA if he misses the Lakers’ ultimate 5 video games of the common season. (Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, who obtained one fifth-place vote in ESPN’s straw ballot, is now out of the working after lacking Thursday’s sport due to a proper knee ailment.)

It’s also important to notice that voters were instructed to depart the Pistons All-Star guard Cade Cunningham off their ballots after the collapsed lung he suffered last month in all probability ended his common season at 61 video games performed.

The consensus among the 100 media members polled was that Cunningham would’ve landed anywhere from third to fifth, in all probability cutting into the vote totals for both Jokic and Doncic but not doing much to change the tenor of the race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama.

Bonus! Where does the Rookie of the Year race stand?

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Why Kon Knueppel is No. 1 in ESPN’s rookie rankings

Zach Kram breaks down why Kon Knueppel has been the best rookie in the NBA this season.

With a contentious Rookie of the Year race all season involving a pair of former roommates at Duke — Dallas Mavericks ahead Cooper Flagg and Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel — we also selected to survey voters on how that race could shake out.

And, like the MVP race, there is a clear chief.

It’s Knueppel, the No. 4 choose last June, who has a large lead with 10 days to go in the common season, claiming 80 first-place votes to Flagg’s 20.

Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe, the No. 3 choose, snagged two second-place votes to go with 94 third-place votes. San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 choose, had 5 third-place votes, and New Orleans Pelicans large man Derik Queen obtained the ultimate third-place vote.

For someone to move No. 1 choose Flagg, a potential generational prospect who is on tempo to become the fourth rookie since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 to average at least 20.0 factors, 6.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists, becoming a member of Doncic, Jordan and Larry Bird — it was going to take a exceptional flip of occasions.

Enter Knueppel, who has not only set the NBA rookie file for 3-pointers made in a season but is at present main the league in 3s on 43.1% capturing from deep.

Those gaudy numbers have been key to Charlotte’s turnaround; the Hornets began the season 16-28 but have won 24 of their previous 32 video games to surge into the prime half of the East play-in image.

Though profitable not often components into the Rookie of the Year race, the mixture of Knueppel’s play and Charlotte’s success — coupled with Flagg’s Mavericks enjoying for another high draft choose — has swung the race totally in Knueppel’s favor with just a handful of regular-season video games left.