Supermarket price inflation fell barely this month but stays “well past the point at which price rises really start to bite”, according to newest figures.
Grocery costs were 5% increased than a 12 months in the past in the 4 weeks to August 10, according to market analysis firm Worldpanel by Numerator, which was lately renamed from Kantar. However, this was down from July’s 5.2%, which represented a rise from inflation of 4.7% a month earlier and marked the highest stage since January 2024. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and shopper insight at Worldpanel, said: “We’ve seen a marginal drop in grocery price inflation this month, but we’re still well past the point at which price rises really start to bite and consumers are continuing to adapt their behaviour to make ends meet. What people pay for their supermarket shopping often impacts their spending across other parts of the high street too, including their eating and drinking habits out of the home.”
Households have been warned they may face a “significant challenge” with food inflation expected to surge to 6% by the finish of the 12 months. The British Retail Consortium (BRC), which has more than 200 main retailers as members, warned the Chancellor has to determine between backing the high avenue or “fanning the flames of inflation”. According to the BRC, two-thirds of chief financial officers (CFOs) expect to see more price rises.
Its latest survey discovered around 56% of retail finance chiefs really feel “pessimistic” about trading situations over the next 12 months. Around 85% said their companies had been compelled to hike costs as a consequence of Rachel Reeves’ last funds growing employer national insurance coverage and the national residing wage. Around 65% predicted more rises were forward in the coming 12 months.
According to WorldPanel, informal and fast service eating places particularly had seen a decline in guests over the summer season, with journeys falling by 6% during the three months to mid-July 2025 in contrast with last 12 months.
Despite the ongoing value pressures, prospects still seem to be searching for to embody treats in their baskets, with gross sales of branded grocery objects growing by 6.1% this month, forward of own-label alternate options which were up by 4.1%.
Branded gross sales made up 46.4% of all grocery spending but were significantly in style across personal care, confectionery, sizzling drinks and delicate drinks, where they accounted for more than 75% of money through the tills.
Sales of premium own-label merchandise also rose by 11.5% this period.
Worldpanel’s information also exhibits that more than half of households purchased a box of frozen fish fingers over the last 12 months, forward of the product turning 70 in September.
Mr McKevitt said: “The humble fish finger remains as popular as ever and nearly one billion were sold in the past year, with more than half of households grabbing a box.”
He added: “The average home cook now spends three minutes less preparing the evening meal than they did in 2017 at just under 31 minutes. We can see this trend in the growth of things like microwaveable rice, ready meals and chilled pizza too, which have grown by 8%, 6% and 5% respectively.”
Lidl and Ocado were tied for high spot as the quickest growing grocers over the 12 weeks to August 10, with gross sales at both retailers up by 10.7% in contrast to the same period last 12 months.
Tesco loved its largest month-to-month share gain since December 2024 as its maintain of the market rose by 0.8 share factors to 28.4%, pushed by gross sales growth of 7.4% in contrast to last 12 months.
Asda and Co-op both saw gross sales down on a 12 months in the past, by 2.6% and 3.2% respectively.
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