Elon Musk’s unveiling of a new “flying” Tesla on a SpaceX website this week has observers buzzing about an out-of-this-world merger between the two corporations, with Kalshi bettors placing the odds of such a combo at over 50% for early next yr.
Banking giant Barclays went as far as to say a merger could occur before Tesla’s annual normal assembly, scheduled to take place by Dec. 6.
“The possibility of a Tesla/SpaceX merger has increasingly become the consensus expectation,” Barclays analysts wrote this week, according to Bloomberg.
Elon Musk at a convention in France in 2023. REUTERS
“While it’s possible that the timing of a TSLA/SPCX merger announcement could slip later into October or perhaps even until early November, we believe such timing may increasingly challenge merger approval as part of the AGM,” they added.
The prospect of merging the almost $2 trillion SpaceX, which went public to great fanfare in June, and the roughly $1.4 trillion Tesla has prediction market bettors salivating.
On the query “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?,” Kalshi has low odds for the relaxation of this yr but places the possibilities of the combo occurring by March 1 at around 50%. The odds go up to almost 60% for an April 1 deadline, with almost 80% possibilities by the finish of next yr.
The notion of Musk folding his electric automaker into SpaceX surfaced in the buildup to the summer season IPO, with SpaceX shopping for about $100 million price of Cybertrucks in 2025. Musk ended up merging SpaceX with his artificial intelligence business xAI, instead.
But the Tesla-SpaceX collabs have continued, with SpaceX shopping for almost $300 million price of Tesla’s utility-scale batteries, recognized as Megapacks, for its AI knowledge facilities in the second quarter of 2026.
Most lately, observers took Musk’s determination to unveil Tesla’s new “flying” Roadster on a SpaceX check facility in Texas as a signal of a deeper partnership to come.
“You’re going to see the results of what happens when you have a collaboration with the world’s best car company and the world’s best rocket company,” Musk said before the show.
Tesla unveils its long-delayed Roadster with SpaceX technology on Thursday. via REUTERS
“This is the culmination of incredible work by Tesla and SpaceX engineers working closely together to make something that you haven’t seen in any movie, that is better than any James Bond car, better than – well, I don’t know, I’ve never seen anything like this,” he added.
Additional group tasks by Tesla and SpaceX embody an effort to make semiconductors for Tesla’s automobiles and robots, along with a chip just for SpaceX’s AI satellites, Bloomberg famous.
Tesla overlaps “on so many fronts with SpaceX,” as Musk put it on a latest earnings call.
A screenshot from a Tesla dwell feed reveals the company unveiling its next-generation Roadster in McGregor, Texas. Tesla/AFP via Getty Images
Barclays famous challenges to a merger embody the need to win shareholder votes.
“Roughly 11% of total outstanding votes in Tesla’s 2025 AGM voting were ‘Broker non-votes,’ which are effectively counted as ‘Against’ votes, and we suspect Tesla will attempt to increase shareholder participation in a potential SpaceX combination vote,” Bloomberg quoted the analysts as saying.
The merger would also require regulatory approval.
SpaceX and Tesla did not immediately reply to requests for remark.
